Experts' marathon schedules usually recommend 4 to 6 long runs of at least 30K. I am happy that today I was able to complete my only 30K run building up to NYC. Therefore I have to be realistic regarding my race target.
My recent half marathon time suggests that I would be able to run the full distance with a time of around 3:30 hrs. But due to my lack of long runs I am sure this is not realistic. An experienced runner might be able to race shorter distances at a reasonable speed without proper training but it is not possible to transfer this perfomance to marathon distance. There is nothing that can make up for the necessary long training runs.
Moreover NYC has a very challenging route profile. Top level runners always finish about 5 min slower than their PBs. A middle of the pack runner will have to add around 15 min to his time. Congruesly I should be happy to finish with a time of 3:50 to 4:00 hrs.
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